The art of conjecturing: counting the chances
To conjecture about something is to measure its probability. Therefore we define the art of conjecturing, or stochastics, as the art of measuring the probabilities of things as exactly as possible, so that in our judgements and actions we may always choose or follow what seems to us better, more satisfactory, safer or more carefully considered.
— Jakob Bernoulli, Ars conjectandi (1713), part IV In 1654, Pascal and Fermat exchanged letters on how to divide the stakes of an interrupted game. In 1657, the Dutchman Christiaan Huygens published a fifteen-page booklet on the calculations of dice games. These were parlour problems: dice, cards, bets.